GLOBAL - The FAO’s first forecast for world cereal production in 2012 points to a one per cent (or 27 million tonnes) increase from 2011 to a new record of 2,371 million tonnes. Increases are expected for coarse grains and rice, while wheat may decrease.
Total cereal utilisation is anticipated to expand by 1.4 per cent in 2012/13, to 2,357 million tonnes, with feed utilisation growing fastest and food consumption keeping pace with population. On the other hand, growth in industrial use of cereals for the production of biofuels is likely to stall after several years of strong gains.
Based on these early prospects for world production and utilization, world end-of-season cereal stocks for crop years closing in 2013 could increase to 524 million tonnes, roughly nine million tonnes, or 1.7 per cent, higher than their opening levels. This is not expected to result in any signifcant variation in the global stocks-to-use ratio, which is estimated to remain stable at roughly 22 per cent.
Among the major cereals, world carryovers are forecast to decline for wheat while increasing for coarse grains and rice. The forecast rise in inventories of coarse grains could still leave its stocks-to-use ratio at a precariously low level of 14.3 per cent, up marginally from 2011/12.
World trade in cereals in 2012/13 is forecast to reach 295.5 million tonnes, slightly higher than in 2011/12. This increase mostly concerns maize, supported by rebounding supplies, more than offsetting an anticipated contraction in wheat, while rice trade is forecast to remain stable.
The FAO Cereal Price Index averaged 224 points in April 2012, down nearly two per cent from March, with all cereals showing weakness, amid favourable supply prospects. In April, wheat prices on average were roughly 21 per cent, maize 15 per cent and rice four per cent lower than the corresponding month last year.
Based on these early prospects for world production and utilization, world end-of-season cereal stocks for crop years closing in 2013 could increase to 524 million tonnes, roughly nine million tonnes, or 1.7 per cent, higher than their opening levels. This is not expected to result in any signifcant variation in the global stocks-to-use ratio, which is estimated to remain stable at roughly 22 per cent.
Among the major cereals, world carryovers are forecast to decline for wheat while increasing for coarse grains and rice. The forecast rise in inventories of coarse grains could still leave its stocks-to-use ratio at a precariously low level of 14.3 per cent, up marginally from 2011/12.
World trade in cereals in 2012/13 is forecast to reach 295.5 million tonnes, slightly higher than in 2011/12. This increase mostly concerns maize, supported by rebounding supplies, more than offsetting an anticipated contraction in wheat, while rice trade is forecast to remain stable.
The FAO Cereal Price Index averaged 224 points in April 2012, down nearly two per cent from March, with all cereals showing weakness, amid favourable supply prospects. In April, wheat prices on average were roughly 21 per cent, maize 15 per cent and rice four per cent lower than the corresponding month last year.
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