Tuesday, 25 September 2012

Agriculture: Corn moved higher on Brazil's crop concerns


Precious Metals: Platinum rose on South African miners’ unrest

Precious metals apart from silver rose on Friday on encouraging comments from John Williams, San Francisco Federal Reserve Bank president. John Williams said that when the Operation Twist ends in December, the Fed may extend the outright purchases of Treasuries.

Gold ended the week on the positive note, boosted by hints on further easing measures from the Fed after Operation Twist ends in December.

Silver rallied in Asian and European session on Friday but failed to hold the gains and dropped sharply during the US trading hours. 


Platinum extended previous gains on persistent supply concerns from South Africa. On Friday, Anglo American Platinum warned striking employees that in case they do not return to work the company will take legal action.

Palladium was the top-performer, moving in tandem with industrial metals. The precious metal also drew strength from hopes for additional easing in the US and weaker greenback.



Industrial Metals: Nickel reached 20-week high on lower inventories

Base metals moved higher on Friday, erasing previous losses on weak fresh PMI releases from the US, China and Eurozone. At the same time, inability of Eurozone’s leaders to agree on measures to solve spreading debt crisis weighted down on the industrial metals.

Aluminum posted mild gain despite higher inventories at the LME warehouses and softer global shares.

Copper inched up on news that refined copper output was in deficit of 473,000 tons in H1 of 2012 compared to a deficit of 131,000 tons in H1 of 2011.

Nickel topped 20-week high on stronger Euro and a 24% decline in inventories at the LME-listed warehouses. Stronger spot demand from alloy-makers also boosted the base metal.

Zinc advanced on improved spot market activity and weaker US Dollar. However, soft global equities and weak manufacturing activity data capped the upswing of the metal.



Energy: Natural gas climbed despite cooler US weather

Energy commodities were bullish on Friday amid lingering concerns over instability in Libya and falling North Sea production. Speculation that the Fed will loosen its policy further in December and weakness of the greenback also lifted energy prices.

Crude oil rose on hopes that global stimulus measures will spur demand for energy. Escalating tensions in Libya also supported the commodity price.

Brent oil added 1.26% amid declining production from the North Sea region. However, the upward trend was limited by talks of possible strategic reserves release and elevating inventories in the US.

Natural gas continued its rally despite cooler weather in the US. Meanwhile, US natural gas inventories climbed in line with expectations last week thus sending the commodity higher.

Heating oil gained 3.15%, tracking gains of Brent and crude oil. Relatively low US supplies continued to push heating oil higher.



Agriculture: Corn moved higher on Brazil’s crop concerns

Rural commodities rallied on Friday amid falling Russia’s and Brazil’s supplies. Adding to the positive mood of the commodity group, the US Dollar retreated on speculation that the Fed will ease its policy further in December.

Wheat soared after Andrei Belousov, Russia’s Economy Minister, said that Russia may restrict exports in the autumn in case domestic prices skyrocket.

Corn gained 0.30% on global supply concerns. Brazil, the third biggest world’s producer, stated that about one million tons of corn may be damaged by rains.

Sugar climbed on hopes that recent plunge in price will encourage buyers to return to markets.

Coffee was the top-performer, erasing previous losses caused by improving Colombian crops. However, coffee futures remained under heavy pressure as recent increase in prices motivates farmers to increase supplies.



EXPLANATIONS

Commodities


Gold - spot 995 fine gold


Silver - spot 999 fine silver


Platinum - spot platinum with minimum purity 99.95%


Palladium - spot palladium with minimum purity 99.95%


Aluminium - three-month forward contract on the London Metal Exchange


Copper - three-month forward contract on the London Metal Exchange


Zinc - three-month forward contract on the London Metal Exchange


Nickel - three-month forward contract on the London Metal Exchange


Crude oil - light, sweet crude oil active contract on the New York Mercantile Exchange


Brent oil - Brent oil active contract on the New York Mercantile Exchange


Natural Gas - natural gas active contract on the New York Mercantile Exchange


Heating oil - heating oil active contract on the New York Mercantile Exchange


Sugar - white sugar wheat active contract on the Chicago Board of Trade


Wheat - wheat active contract on the Chicago Board of Trade


Coffee - benchmark Arabica coffee active contract on the NYB-ICE Futures Exchange


Corn - corn active contract on the Chicago Board of Trade

Indices


Dow Jones - UBS Precious Metals Subindex Total Return - commodity group subindex composed of gold and silver; the index reflects return on underlying commodity futures price movement


Dow Jones - UBS Industry Metals Subindex Total Return - commodity group subindex composed of futures contracts on aluminium, copper, nickel and zinc; the index reflects return on fully collateralized futures positions


Dow Jones - UBS Energy Subindex Total Return - commodity group subindex composed of futures contracts on crude oil, heating oil, unleaded gasoline and natural gas; the index reflects return on fully collateralized futures positions


Dow Jones - UBS Agriculture Subindex Total Return - commodity group subindex composed of futures contracts on coffee, corn, cotton, soybeans, soybean oil, sugar and wheat; the index reflects return on fully collateralized futures positions

Chart


SMA (20) - Simple Moving Average of 20 periods


SMA (60) - Simple Moving Average of 60 periods


Correlation - a statistical measure of the linear relationship of two random variables. It is defined as the covariance divided by the standard deviation of two variables

Indicators

Daily Ranked Price Moves - daily price changes in an ascending order for positive changes and in a descending order for negative or mixed changes

Monthly Ranked Price Moves - monthly price changes in an ascending order for positive changes and in a descending order for negative or mixed changes

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