By Ali Ashraf Khan
Well we should not forget that he was the Prime Minister when the Kargil adventure was launched — a brainchild of General Musharraf — though he later denied having had any prior knowledge after it had ended in disaster, and he unconditionally succumbed to the pressure of Indians-via US to withdraw Pakistani forces unconditionally and not insisting on Indian withdrawal from Siachen in the 1999 Washington accord. His attitude towards Kashmir and Siachen issue is thus flawed and should be taken for what it is; an attempt for cheap political gain.
Siachen though formally part of the old Jammu & Kashmir state has never come effectively under the jurisdiction of the Dogra ruler; he didn’t have the means of effectively holding this far-away and he probably didn’t see any need for it given the fact that it was unpopulated and suffering from extreme weather conditions. This must have been the reason why even in the 1972 Simla Agreement where the Line of Control was defined this part of the LoC was left out from definition. Probably neither India nor Pakistan who both were signing the agreement could imagine that there was a need for that. Pakistan considered it its own because the Pakistani government had been issuing permits to national and international mountaineers for climbing campaigns in this area since the 1950ies which was tolerated and not complained about by India. This situation continued for another twelve years after Simla until in 1984 India in a sudden attempt occupied the glacier heights and thus changed the status quo.
Why would India have wanted to change the status quo? Even if the story is right that it was Pakistan that was preparing to do the same and it had been caught red-handed by Indians when ordering high altitude mountaineering gears from a London trader – the same who used to provide the gears to the Indians- why would Pakistanis have wanted to change the status quo? This seems to be quite mysterious though of course things did change in the geo-strategic situation and China’s attitude towards India might have been one reason. Strategically Siachen is of great importance to India because from this height they can do all kind of surveillance against China as it is overseeing Chinese border of Nefa sector. By the 1980s it also became clear that Kashmir was not so much a problem of the two-nation theory as Pakistan thought or of secular statehood as India supposed but rather an important territory with regard to the precarious water situation in the subcontinent with all main rivers of northern India and Pakistan drawing water from Kashmir and the Himalayas. The Indus water Treaty signed by India and Pakistan under the supervision of the World Bank and UN gave away the water of three of Pakistan’s eastern rivers namely Sutluj, Bias and Ravi to India which now turns out to be a fact that could bring down theagriculture and thus the survival of Pakistani population. Therefore, Pakistan can’t afford to lose any more water or access to water and thus has to look at the Kashmir and Siachen Issue mainly from this angle, and if we look into the past role played by Americans and Britain through sowing these seeds of Muslim destruction, it is this now starring in the face of our nation.
Pakistan is an agricultural country. Eighty percent of its agricultural output comes from the Indus Basin. Pakistan has one of the world’s largest canal systems built much before Independence by the British. After Independence, problems between the two countries arose over the distribution of water because Rivers flow into Pakistan territory from across India. In 1947, when Punjab was divided between the two countries, many of the canal head-works remained with India. The division of Punjab thus created major problems for irrigation in Pakistan. On April 1, 1948, India stopped the supply of water to Pakistan from every canal flowing from India to Pakistan. Pakistan protested and India finally agreed on an interim agreement on May 4, 1948. This agreement was not a permanent solution; the waters of the Indus basin begin in the Karakorum and Himalayan mountains. They flow from the hills through the arid states of Punjab and Sindh, converging in Pakistan and emptying into the Arabian Sea south of Karachi, which irrigates 26 million acres - the largest irrigated area of any one river system in the world. The partition of British India created a conflict over the plentiful waters of the Indus basin.
In 1951 David Lilienthal was planted to take interest in the subcontinent water situation and was welcomed by the highest levels of both Indian and Pakistani governments. Though his visit was shown as a private visit. But Lilienthal was briefed by US State Department and executive branchofficials, who hoped he could help bridge the gap between India and the United States at the alter of Pakistan, which our leaders have not understood and they acted more loyal than the King by sacrificing our vital national interest and sovereignty. Lilienthal’s idea was well received by officials at the World Bank, and, subsequently, by the Indian and Pakistani governments. Eugene R. Black, then president of the World Bank told Lilienthal that his proposal “makes good sense all round” .Negotiations were carried out between the two countries through the offices of the World Bank. It was finally in Ayub Khan’s regime that an agreement was signed between India and Pakistan by Pundit Nehru and him at Karachi in September 1960. This agreementis known as the Indus Water Treaty.
This treaty divided the use of rivers and canals between the two countries. Pakistan obtained exclusive rights for the three western rivers, namely Indus, Jehlum and Chenab. And India retained rights to the three eastern rivers, namely Ravi, Beas and Sutluj. The treaty also guaranteed ten years of uninterrupted water supply. During this period Pakistan was to build huge dams, financed partly by long-term World Bank loans and compensation money from India. Three multipurpose dams, Warsak, Mangla and Tarbela were built utilizing 28% of available water resources for power generation then new dams were not financed by World Bank for Hydro power generation to cripple Pakistan economically. A system of eight link canals was though built, and the remodeling of existing canals was carried out but due to not lining to seal these canal beds green agricultural fields were turned saline. Five barrages and a gated siphon were also constructed under this treaty.
Nevertheless, while this is all true it is also true that people are dying in Siachen each and every year and they don’t die in the battle but from cold climate and from the inhuman weather conditions at this altitude. India is keeping more soldiers in Siachen than Pakistan that is why they are losing even more people. The terrible avalanche that buried 140 Pakistanis in snow and ice alive and perhaps this one instance has brought this tragic situation that is continuing for the last 28 years to our notice. While the Kashmir issue and Siachen as a part of it has to be settled the possibility of a troops withdrawal on humanitarian grounds could be envisaged by India and Pakistan simultaneously taking advantage of the improved relations between the two neighbours rushing to open trade gateways, MFN status etc. We fully agree that war is no solution to problems but Pakistani leaders should keep in mind that India is much smart in cold war tactics so giving any relaxation to them is considered our weakness by India.
Simultaneous withdrawal would just relieve the people on both sides of the divide from perishing in the cold but keep the settlement open for further negotiation of the Kashmir issue to end this hostility if the welfare of the nation is of any importance to them. After 11 years of war in Afghanistan, US and NATO have learned the hard way that the Taliban problem can not be fought out and settled militarily. Wouldn’t it be possible for Indian and Pakistani leadership to understand after 65 years that a military solution is not possible for the Kashmir issue either? And the race to win the super power support will lead to ultimate doom of the region. God may shower His blessings on all the mankind.
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