Monsoon plays truant but agriculture minister Pawar insists all is well

Searching in vain: The failure of the the monsoon to arrive is having a devastating effect on crops

By SAVITA VERMA

The two-week hiatus of the southwest monsoon has finally got the government worried, though no one is ready to press the panic button yet. 

Agriculture minister Sharad Pawar on Tuesday admitted that the delay in the monsoon has already affected sowing of important Kharif crops in many parts of the country. All hopes are now pinned on revival of the monsoon. 

'By and large, the situation may not be fully satisfactory but it is not bad either. There is ample opportunity to cover the delay,' Pawar said.

He added that the agriculture ministry was in touch with states, who have already prepared contingency plans. States have been told to ensure availability of seeds of alternative crops and varieties and be ready to implement these plans in the event of further delay in the monsoon rains. 

The situation could, however, improve as the window for sowing rice, pulses, oilseeds and cotton is still open till mid-July. There are hopes of the monsoon picking up in July and August which will lead to pick-up of Kharif sowing. 

Till now, the rainfall deficiency is 31 per cent though the weather department says the monsoon is expected to advance and rainfall is expected to be better from next week onwards. 

Dr S.C. Bhan, Indian Met department director, said the monsoon had now become active and the deficiency in rains is expected to be covered. It has already advanced into parts of Madhya Pradesh and remaining parts of Maharashtra. It is likely to advance into Gujarat, Madhya Pradesh, Uttar Pradesh and Uttarakhand in the next two days.

Towards the weekend, monsoon is expected to enter Delhi. D.K. Joshi, chief economist from CRISIL, said while June rainfall is not very critical, the situation would get difficult if rains falter in July too. 

Agriculture Minister Sharad Pawar yesterday

'More worrying is the apprehension about El Nino, which may lead to distorted rains,' he said, adding: 'As it is the economic growth has been slow, a bad monsoon would further create pressure on inflation and impact growth. Prices will rise further.'

A fall in farm output appears imminent. In areas of south and central India where sowing has not taken for crops such as sorghum and pulses, a 5-10 per cent fall in yield may take place, according to B. Venkateswarlu, director, Central Research Institute for Dryland Agriculture. 

Sowing has been affected in Maharashtra, Karnataka, Madhya Pradesh, parts of Uttar Pradesh and Bihar. The widespread deficiency in rains in western and central India has affected coarse cereals such as maize, bajra and jowar. 

However, the overall situation of rice is not worrisome. 

'It is quite possible that production will be good in major rice producing states such as Punjab, Haryana, Andhra Pradesh, Orrisa and Chhattisgarh,' Pawar said. 

Rice has been sown in 3.96 million hectare, which is comparable to the normal area of sowing at this time of the year but less by 0.19 million hectare than last year, the minister said. 

There have been widespread rains in north-eastern and eastern states, coastal Andhra Pradesh and Karnataka which will help in increasing transplantation of rice, he said. 

There is an opportunity to increase the area under pulses and oilseeds which are grown as contingent crops. The sowing of pulses in most of the states generally increases during the first fortnight of July.

A shortfall of 0.32 million hectares has been reported in groundnut due to less sowing in Gujarat, Karnataka and Andhra Pradesh. The agriculture minister said there was no need to worry for Punjab and Haryana since 94 per cent of the crop area is under irrigation. 

The sowing of Kharif crops such as paddy, pulses and oilseeds begins in April but gains momentum after the onset of monsoon in June. Spurred by good monsoon, the country had produced a record 252.56 million tons of foodgrain in the 2011-12 crop year (from July to June). Rice production stood at record 103.41 million tons, out of which 90.75 million tons were grown in Kharif.

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