European wheat
futures rose sharply on Monday, in step with US prices, as operators saw little
respite ahead from a severe drought in the United States that couuld slash
crops, traders said Concerns about the supply outlook in Russia, where
weather-linked downgrades to crop forecasts have fuelled talk of export
restrictions, also supported prices.
Benchmark November milling wheat on the Paris futures market was up 7.00 euros or 2.72 percent at 264.75 euros a tonne by 1143 GMT, after rising as high as 265.75 euros in opening deals. On the less liquid European maize (corn) futures market, November maize struck a contract high of 252.75 euros. New-crop US corn futures rose to a contract high while soybeans hit a one-week top as operators braced themselves for more yield losses and rationing of demand. With little sign of much rainfall in the coming 10 days, operators feared soybean crops would now suffer serious damage as corn plants have in the past month.
"We had the weather problem with the Russian wheat crop, then we had the problem with US corn, and now we have a problem with US soybeans," Michel Portier, head of grains consultancy Agritel, said. With forecasters continuing to pare back US corn estimates, the focus was now on limiting demand.
"Without rationing demand through high prices there is no way we can balance supply and demand," Portier said. Agritel currently estimates the US corn crop at 285 million tonnes, below the 300 million tonnes forecast last week by the International Grains Council, and puts the Russian wheat crop at between 43 and 45 million tonnes, against 45 million seen by the IGC.
In France, the return of rain since Friday, including heavy showers in northern grain belts that could further delay harvesting, revived concerns about quality damage. In exports, traders were awaiting the outcome of a tender by major importer Algeria, with bids due on Monday.
GERMANY German prices were pushed up by the sharp rises in Paris and Chicago futures despite better harvest weather forecast for Germany this week. Standard milling wheat for September delivery in Hamburg was offered for sale up 4 euros at 268 euros a tonne with buyers at around 266 euros. "The rises in Chicago and Paris market are again the driving force with local price factors pushed aside once more as repeatedly seen in the past few weeks," one German trader said.
"The US drought and the possibility of grain export restrictions in Russia are the dominant themes and the weather over the weekend in the two countries has not brought significant changes to the picture." Germany had a disappointingly rainy weekend, interrupting a week of sunshine and wheat plants now need more sunny, warm weather.
Better and mostly dry, warm weather but with widespread clouds is forecast for most of Germany up to Friday. "Last week's sunshine did wheat plants good after the very wet spring and they need more sun," the trader said. "We still have several more weeks before the harvest starts and if we get enough sun the crop can still turn out well, but it is not possible at the moment to make precise forecasts about German wheat quality this year."
Benchmark November milling wheat on the Paris futures market was up 7.00 euros or 2.72 percent at 264.75 euros a tonne by 1143 GMT, after rising as high as 265.75 euros in opening deals. On the less liquid European maize (corn) futures market, November maize struck a contract high of 252.75 euros. New-crop US corn futures rose to a contract high while soybeans hit a one-week top as operators braced themselves for more yield losses and rationing of demand. With little sign of much rainfall in the coming 10 days, operators feared soybean crops would now suffer serious damage as corn plants have in the past month.
"We had the weather problem with the Russian wheat crop, then we had the problem with US corn, and now we have a problem with US soybeans," Michel Portier, head of grains consultancy Agritel, said. With forecasters continuing to pare back US corn estimates, the focus was now on limiting demand.
"Without rationing demand through high prices there is no way we can balance supply and demand," Portier said. Agritel currently estimates the US corn crop at 285 million tonnes, below the 300 million tonnes forecast last week by the International Grains Council, and puts the Russian wheat crop at between 43 and 45 million tonnes, against 45 million seen by the IGC.
In France, the return of rain since Friday, including heavy showers in northern grain belts that could further delay harvesting, revived concerns about quality damage. In exports, traders were awaiting the outcome of a tender by major importer Algeria, with bids due on Monday.
GERMANY German prices were pushed up by the sharp rises in Paris and Chicago futures despite better harvest weather forecast for Germany this week. Standard milling wheat for September delivery in Hamburg was offered for sale up 4 euros at 268 euros a tonne with buyers at around 266 euros. "The rises in Chicago and Paris market are again the driving force with local price factors pushed aside once more as repeatedly seen in the past few weeks," one German trader said.
"The US drought and the possibility of grain export restrictions in Russia are the dominant themes and the weather over the weekend in the two countries has not brought significant changes to the picture." Germany had a disappointingly rainy weekend, interrupting a week of sunshine and wheat plants now need more sunny, warm weather.
Better and mostly dry, warm weather but with widespread clouds is forecast for most of Germany up to Friday. "Last week's sunshine did wheat plants good after the very wet spring and they need more sun," the trader said. "We still have several more weeks before the harvest starts and if we get enough sun the crop can still turn out well, but it is not possible at the moment to make precise forecasts about German wheat quality this year."
No comments:
Post a Comment