Agriculture: Wheat soared after world crops forecast cut

Dukascopy Bank Team  - Dukascopy Bank SA

Precious Metals: Gold flat after previous rally

Precious metals were flat on Monday after previous week’s jump on the EU summit optimism. Weak US and China’s PMI data, which boosted hopes for additional stimulus from the Fed, provided slight support for the commodity group.

Gold was almost unchanged after previous rally as traders await fresh US data releases due on Tuesday. Weaker than expected economic news are likely to force Fed to ease the policy further hence support the yellow metal.

Silver was flat, balancing between fading EU summit stimulus and solid equities.

Platinum, being sensitive to supply issues, was the only gainer amid persistent production uncertainties in South African region.

Palladium lost 1.19% on weakness of the base metal pack. Investors were worried about potential fall in industrial demand for the metal after dismal PMI data worldwide.

Industrial Metals: Aluminum inched down after global PMI releases

Industrial metals apart from nickel tumbled on Monday after disanointing China’s and US PMI data. Strong Dollar and lingering demand concerns continued to weight on the commodity group.

Aluminum eased down after PMI data; however, falling inventories at the main exchange warehouses limited losses of the light metal.

Copper was the top-loser amid global growth concerns on dismal manufacturing data and record high unemployment rate in the Eurozone.

Nickel was the only gainer as Australia plans to impose minerals tax that may tighten global nickel supplies.

Zinc dropped on global manufacturing slowdown. The metal’s downward trend was restricted by increased consumption from Asia.

Energy: Brent oil dropped on global demand worries

Energy markets plunged on Monday on global demand worries. However, potential supply disruptions from Iran curbed losses of the commodity group. Iranian National Security Committee is drafting a bill to call the country to block oil transportation via the Strait of Hormuz.

Crude oil was the top-loser after the US, Europe and China reported weak manufacturing sector’s state in June.

Brent oil retreated 0.5% as demand concerns outweighed possible supply disruptions from Iran. Meanwhile markets await US industrial orders data due on Tuesday; the data may result in price correction.

Natural gas was unchanged as weak PMI releases managed to equilibrate potential demand increase caused by abnormally hot weather in the US.

Heating oil declined, following crude and Brent oil’s suit after disappointing global manufacturing data.

Agriculture: Wheat soared after world crops forecast cut

Rural commodities extended previous rally on Monday amid unfavorable weather conditions in the main growing regions.

Wheat advanced after the International Grains Council reported that global output is likely to be 4.3% lower than initial estimate in 2012-13 crop year because of large fall in Russia’s production.

Corn soared to three-month high as US crop conditions have continued to deteriorated for the fourth week.

Sugar surged to two-month high on Brazilian output concerns; the country’s production sank by 32% in the first half of June.

Coffee rose as new wave of rainfalls is expected in Brazil by the weekend. Currently, the quality of coffee beans has been already compromised by rains.

EXPLANATIONS

Commodities

·        Gold - spot 995 fine gold

·        Silver - spot 999 fine silver

·        Platinum - spot platinum with minimum purity 99.95%

·        Palladium - spot palladium with minimum purity 99.95%

·        Aluminium - three months forward aluminum contract on the London Metal Exchange

·        Copper - three months forward copper contract on the London Metal Exchange

·        Zinc - three months forward zinc contract on the London Metal Exchange

·        Nickel- three months forward nickel contract on the London Metal Exchange

·        Crude oil - light, sweet crude oil active contract on the New York Mercantile Exchange

·        Brent oil - Brent oil active contract on the New York Mercantile Exchange

·        Natural Gas - natural gas active contract on the New York Mercantile Exchange

·        Heating oil - heating oil active contract on the New York Mercantile Exchange

·        Sugar - white sugar on the LIF-NYSE LIFFE London Exchange

·        Wheat - wheat active contract on the Chicago Board of Trade

·        Coffee - benchmark Arabica coffee active contract on the NYB-ICE Futures Exchange

·        Corn - corn active contract on the Chicago Board of Trade

Indices

·        Dow Jones-UBS Precious Metals Subindex Total Return - commodity group subindex composed of gold and silver; the index reflects return on underlying commodity futures price movement

·        Dow Jones-UBS Industry Metals Subindex Total Return - commodity group subindex composed of futures contracts on aluminium, copper, nickel and zinc; the index reflects return on fully collateralized futures positions

·        Dow Jones-UBS Energy Subindex Total Return - commodity group subindex composed of futures contracts on crude oil, heating oil, unleaded gasoline and natural gas; the index reflects return on fully collateralized futures positions

·        Dow Jones-UBS Agriculture Subindex Total Return - commodity group subindex composed of futures contracts on coffee, corn, cotton, soybeans, soybean oil, sugar and wheat; the index reflects return on fully collateralized futures positions

Chart

·        SMA (20) - Simple Moving Average of 20 periods

·        SMA (60) - Simple Moving Average of 60 periods

·        Correlation - a statistical measure of the linear relationship of two random variables. It is defined as the covariance divided by the standard deviation of two variables

Indicators

Daily Ranked Price Moves - daily price changes in an ascending order for positive changes and in a descending order for negative or mixed changes

Monthly Ranked Price Moves - monthly price changes in an ascending order for positive changes and in a descending order for negative or mixed changes

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